The tone has shifted in Carmel Valley and fast! Just a few weeks ago, the data still classified 92130 as a strong seller’s market. But for those of us working directly with buyers and sellers, it was already apparent that buyer urgency had cooled well before the data reflected it.
Now, the numbers have caught up. As of this week, we’ve officially crossed the threshold into buyer’s market conditions with rising inventory, slower absorption, and a dramatic shift in buyer behavior.
The tone has shifted in Carmel Valley, and fast. Just a few weeks ago, the data still classified 92130 as a strong seller’s market. But for those of us working directly with buyers and sellers, it was already apparent that buyer urgency had cooled well before the data reflected it.
Now, the numbers have caught up. As of this week, we’ve officially crossed the threshold into buyer’s market conditions with rising inventory, slower absorption, and a dramatic shift in buyer behavior.
Current Market Snapshot (June 23, 2025)
-
Median List Price: $2,992,500
-
Median Price of New Listings: $2,999,000
-
Price per Square Foot: $846
-
Inventory: 54 active listings
-
Market Action Index (MAI): 27
-
Market Status: Buyer’s Market
The Market Action Index (MAI) — which measures the balance between supply and demand — tells the story. At the end of May, the MAI was above 50, reflecting strong seller-side conditions. Just last week, it had fallen to 41. Now, it sits at 27, a level we haven’t seen in over a year, officially signaling that buyers have the upper hand.
Inventory and Activity Trends
-
Inventory is climbing steadily, now up to 54 active single-family homes compared to 38 at the start of the month.
-
Absorption is slowing: only 3 homes went under contract last week, while 9 new listings came to market.
-
Price activity is shifting:
-
20% of listings have reduced their price
-
11% have been relisted
-
Only 7% have increased their price
-
This divergence suggests more sellers are adjusting to meet a softer market or simply trying to re-engage buyer attention after extended days on market.
By Price Segment
The Altos quartile data reveals softness throughout the upper price points:
-
Top quartile ($5M+): No homes absorbed last week; listings are sitting.
-
Upper-middle ($3.1M–$5M): A slowdown in both showings and movement.
-
Lower-middle ($2.7M–$3.1M): Limited absorption, despite accessibility.
-
Bottom quartile (under $2.1M): Still the most active, but even here, buyer selectivity is increasing.
Pricing: Still Flat, But Cracking at the Edges
Median list prices remain stable for now, but the price per square foot is slipping, as larger homes stay on market longer and buyers see more house for their money. If current trends continue, we may see broader price movement heading into July.
What This Means for Sellers
In a transitioning market like this, strategy matters more than ever. Even well-prepared homes with strong presentation and marketing are now competing with rising inventory and more cautious buyers. Sellers with listings lingering on the market may need to revisit positioning, timing, or value messaging — especially at the higher end.
Final Takeaway
In just three weeks, 92130 by the numbers has moved from a strong seller’s market into buyer-driven territory. The data now confirms what many sellers and agents were already feeling: momentum has shifted. Homes will still sell but they’ll need to earn it.
📌 Missed our earlier June forecast? Catch up here.
📩 Want a custom update for your specific neighborhood or price range? I’d be happy to send one just reach out.
